Getting High in the Desert

While the internet finally cools off after nearly burning down from a napalm storm of make-believe Blackhawk trade rumors (I wonder if Brian Burke woke up on Wednesday morning and thought he’d have to answer questions regarding a rumor from Hockey Buzz.  And another thing, if any person with half of a brain cell knows any post from that site is about 10% fact, 90% fantasy, how do their blog posts become an international story?) let’s take a look at some of the reality facing the Hawks in the next two games:

-Jonathan Toews returned to practice on Wednesday.  The ‘meh’ news was that Toews didn’t skate with a regular line so it appears as though the Hawks still aren’t counting on him just yet.  At this point, though, it’s encouraging for him just to return to the ice.  To get the go-ahead from the medical staff would mean his concussion symptoms are finally subsiding. 

-It’s kind of surprising how shocked people are about the Phoenix Coyotes start to the season.  I suppose all the off-season drama plays into it.  What people forget is Phoenix was in the hunt for a playoff spot last year until early February.  Once they reached their high water mark of 5 games over .500, that’s when the wheels came apart.

Getting superb goaltending is certainly helping their cause in the early going.  Ilya Bryzgalov and Jason LaBarbera have combined to stop 93% of the shots they’ve faced.  With Bryzgalov getting the start against Colorado on Wednesday night, it will be interesting  to see who Dave Tippett turns to in the Thursday night match-up with the Hawks. 

Other than Shane Doan and Ed Jovanovski, the Coyotes are a mish-mosh of veteran players.  Some familar names you’ll see- Robert Lang, Adrian Aucoin, Jim Vandermeer, Radim Vrbata, Vernon Fiddler, and Matthew Lombardi. 

They won’t be raising the Cup in June, but they could prove to be a formidable opponent for teams taking them lightly.

-As for Colorado, back-up goalie Peter Budaj got his first start of the season on Wednesday night.  At this point, it’s not a matter of if Craig Anderson reverts to his career numbers, but when.  A heavy workload combined with having no defense in front of him isn’t exactly the key to surviving the grueling regular season.

Going into this week, the Avalanche were tied with the Edmonton Oilers for the worst shot differential in the entire NHL.  Puck Prospectus uses this statistical measure to help figure who the lucky teams are and who the good ones are.  I’ll let you try and figure where they think Colorado stands.

-Another bizarre thought from Tim Sassone today.  After unmerciful spanking to the blogger who started the rumor firestorm, Sassone offers this:

 Who wouldn’t want Kaberle, a terrific defenseman and a power-play quarterback? The Hawks need both.

Um, come again. 

Two Julys ago, the Hawks gave Brian Campbell the richest and longest contract in team history to fill the role of power-play quarterback.  Not to mention, power-play quarterback is the only thing Cam Barker can say he actually does.  So no, the Hawks don’t need a power-play quarterback and probably won’t need one as long as those two guys are wearing an Indian head.

-As for the rumor mongerers among us, I just have one request: Is it asking too much to start throwing some other names out there?  The ’Tomas Kaberle, Anze Kopitar, and Alexander Frolov to the Hawks’ rumors have officially entered the ‘Chone Figgins to the White Sox’ and ‘Brian Roberts to the Cubs’ zone.  

If we’re going to wildly speculate about players, why is it always the same three guys?  Give us someone new to make fun of you about.  I’m not asking for much. 

*On the Farm* 

–The IceHogs took out a weekend of frustration on the San Antonio Rampage with a 5-3 win.  Rob Klinkhammer, Akim Aliu, Bryan Bickell, Mark Cullen, and Jassen Cullimore were the goal scorers.  Cullen added two assists and Klinkhammer had an assist as well.  Corey Crawford stopped 30 of the 33 shots to nab third star honors. 

–Byron Froese scored his second goal in as many nights in Everett’s 3-2 loss to the Lethbridge Hurricanes.

–Kyle Beach continues to leave behind a trail of scorched Earth.  He scored two goals in a 5-1 win over the Chilliwack Bruins.  The goals were just over 30 seconds apart.  He scored his first goal with 15 seconds left in the first period.  Then he scored again 18 seconds into the second period on the power play.  Beach leads the Chiefs with 13 goals.

‘Lanche @ Hawks, 7:30 p.m.

A few notes concerning this evening’s game:

Tim Sassone of the Daily Herald is reporting the Hawks have waived Radek Smolenak and recalled Jack Skille from Rockford.  Skille practiced with the fourth line this morning, but it will be interesting to see which group he plays with this evening.  If the offense struggles out of the gate, look for Skille to be the first to get a bump up to a scoring line.

The Avalanche have lost Joe Sakic, but now boast Matt Duchene, the third overall pick in this summer’s draft.  They’re still led by Paul Stasny, Milan Hejduk and Wojtek Wolski, though – a trio the Hawks had trouble with at times last season.

Finally, we’ll, of course, have thoughts tomorrow, complete with updates on the ever-important pregame festivities, like any new videos, etc.

Wild With Concern (Game @ UC, 7:30 pm CST)

And, the Blackhawks’ 0-3 start to the preseason had you concerned?  The guys at Hockey Wilderness, a Minnesota Wild blog, are thinking of jumping, having the following to say regarding the Wild’s Thursday night loss to the Blues:

Tonight was the first time people should rally start to feel concerned. Concerned about the fact that nine regulars are still shelved, concerned that the team on the ice looks utterly confused at times as to which system they should be playing, concerned that the defensemen don’t know whether to pass or skate it out, concerned that we are a week away from the start of the season and the Wild still have six or seven guys who should be in Houston getting massive ice time, concerned that the Wild are going for the long bomb time and again instead to taking the zone with speed, concerned that the new “up-tempo” offense only amassed 18 SOG tonight. Frankly, things are NOT looking good.

And, the Wild blogosphere is merely taking a page from its rookie coach’s book.  Todd Richards, most recently a Sharks assistant coach, had this to say following the loss:

Coming off the way we played tonight, I think I have to change the way I’ve been doing things … The guys who are going to play are going to be the guys who have to go.

Yikes.  Now I feel stupid for crying myself to sleep worrying about Dustin Byfuglien’s ailing groin. 

In all fairness, the Wild is experiencing its own injury problems, with regulars Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Sykora, Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu, Shand Hnidy, Benoit Pouliot and Derek Boogaard missing the tilt.  In other words, the Wild is perhaps missing each of its offensive impact players, minus Martin Havlat and Brent Burns.

That, along with Richards’ proclamation that the regulars will play from here on out, likely means that Havlat will make his first appearance in the United Center tonight since he left game four of the Western Conference Finals after taking his second crunching hit in as many games.

UPDATE: I should also mention that tonight marks The Committed Indian’s return to the UC.  (Only in America could a guy like the Indian’s Sam have a publication with a solid following.  Only in America.)  To aid the celebration, the Feather has contributed a piece regarding the Central Division’s offseason.  Read it and weep.

Game 4 @ 2:00 p.m. CST in Chicago

Heading into today’s game four, the big story is each team’s injury troubles.

According to numerous media outlets, Chris Draper will miss Sunday’s game four and Pavel Datsyuk’s status will be determined shortly before the game.

On the other end, the Blackhawks’ Nik Khabibulin and Martin Havlat are likely out for the tilt. 

For Martin Havlat, the hit which caused his injury has been the subject of great debate.  Of course, most Hawk fans believe it was a dirty hit and most Wing fans believe it wasn’t.  (Kudos to Feather readers, who, again, managed to bring objective views to the situation.)  What’s important now is Havlat’s health and his ability to contribute against the Wings in the near future.  Given that Havlat appeared to sustain a concussion on Friday, it is very unlikely he’ll be available for today’s game and nearly as unlikely he’ll be able to play in games five or six.  Remember, though, I’m no doctor.

Enter stage left Colin Fraser, who has played only once during the playoffs.  That came in game three against the Calgary Flames in Calgary when Patrick Kane wasn’t able to go due to the flu.  The Hawks lost 4-2, though that wasn’t the fault of Fraser.  He’ll likely take Patrick Sharp’s spot on the fourth line, and it’s anyone’s guess after that.  Perhaps Quenneville puts together a checking line with Pahlsson in the middle, perhaps with Ladd and Brouwer on the wings.  Perhaps not.  There’s little precedent for playing without Havlat this year; Havlat has missed only one game this entire season.

As for Khabibulin, my money’s on him missing the rest of the playoffs – regardless of how far the Blackhawks get without him.  Khabibulin suffered the infamous “lower body injury” twice during the regular season: once in late November and once again in mid-February.  Each time Khabby missed at least three weeks, and his injury in February kept him out over a month.  On the bright side, Khabibulin hasn’t exactly been the rock the Hawks hoped he could be in the playoffs.  While he certainly has not been bad, perhaps it is time to give Cristobal Huet, a bona fide number one goalie himself, a chance to beat the Wings.

Additionally, I’m reminded of the season-long debate of what the Hawks should do with their goaltending situation.  It was our position that Tallon keep both goaltenders, saying it could seriously aid the Hawks in a situation like … well, this one.  Yes, it cost the Hawks almost $13 million this season and signing Huet while Khabibulin’s big money was still on the books was surely a mistake by Tallon, but it could now benefit the Hawks this playoff season like little else could.

Committed to the Indian

For those going to the game, the Fifth Feather is featured in The Committed Indian.  Support Sam and his excellent publication by buying a copy outside the UC before the game begins.  For those of you not going this afternoon, as usual, we’ll post our contribution in the next few days.

Game Six @ Chicago, 8:00 p.m.

First and foremost, the Feather would like to congratulate the Chicago Blackhawks for being selected to represent the NHL and play the champions of the Champions Hockey League.  That’s a little redundant, no?  That’ll happen in September of next season.

The Hawks will battle the ZSC Lions in Zurich for the Victoria Cup.  Plenty of more reaction just as soon as we figure out what the hell that is.

Elsewhere, it appears that NHL players named “Walker” enjoy punching defenseless, large men right in the face.  And, the picture at the top of the linked post is, as they say, priceless.  Oh, if Aaron Ward only had the foresight to shield his own face when the angry man he just cross checked became enraged.  I’ve heard of “taking the hit to make the play,” but this has to be too painful to qualify.  (Ba doom che.)

Anyway, on to the reason we’re all here: game six of the Western Conference Semi-Finals.  The Blackhawks are speaking about their sense of urgency in pre-game discussions, and the Canucks’ head coach challenged his best players to get to the ‘next level.’  Sounds about right. 

I think we’ll see a superb effort from the Canucks, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawks match it.  As always, they’ll need the Keith-Seabrook pairing to help along the Sedin slide, and continued contributions from the Toews-Kane line won’t hurt. 

As for the Keith-Seabrook pairing, the Alex Burrows demotion and Mats Sundin promotion from game five is, in my eyes, a good thing.  Yes, the Sedin-Sedin-Sundin combination gives the Canucks’ top line a better chance to produce, but it guarantees that Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook will play against the Canucks’ best three players – especially at home with last change – and also takes pressure off the second and third defensive pairings, as they don’t have to deal with a Sundin-centered line any longer.  Pitting Brian Campbell or Cam Barker against Burrows and/or Ryan Kesler isn’t as daunting.

I think we’ll also see a more docile Canuck team, after brain surgeons Shane O’Brien and Kevin Bieksa took stupid, selfish penalties that lead to the tying and winning Blackhawk goals on Saturday night.  That could play into the Blackhawks’ hands, as well.

So, for heaven’s sakes, take a deep breath and enjoy the show.

Game Two and Notes

– My (web site) partner John began his game one recap by saying the Blackhawks ‘ playoff performances routinely bent our understanding of momentum in sports. Well, allow me to bend two others linked to the Hawks’ ‘08-’09 playoff run: experience and frequency of a team’s play.

First, yes, the Hawks may be partaking in a scientific experiment that attempts to disprove momentum in sports. Twice in the team’s seven playoff games, the Hawks have come back from three-goal defecits in one period, only to lose the game in the end. Doesn’t sound like momentum to me.

But, journalists and analysts alike have made big deals about two other oft-heard, questionable phenomena during the present playoff run. For example, The Hockey News’ playoff preview predicted the Calgary Flames would best the Hawks in seven games in the first round. Why? Experience – and, better yet, the Hawks’ need to learn how to lose.

They say every good, young team has to learn how to lose before it can win. Is this Chicago’s rite of passage?

So, with the Hawks first round victory, I guess experience is out the window, too. And, it took with it a team’s need to “learn how to lose before it can win” – but that one was too easy.

Next, in association with game one of the Western Conference semi-finals, many analysts discussed the Canucks’ lengthy layoff between sweeping Barry Rozner’s St. Louis Blues and playing game one on Thursday night in Vancouver. Consider the following from www.covers.com, a gambling web site:

Looking at historical data since the lockout, it appears there is an argument to be made that a lack of rest can contribute to playoff success, particularly when playing against a well-rested team. The caveat, of course, is that only three years worth of data was examined.

Teams with seven days off or more are 1-5 in the first game of the next round and are 2-4 overall in those series. The only Game 1 victory by a team with seven days of rest or more came last year, when the Penguins erased a 3-0 second period deficit to defeat the Rangers.

Teams with two days off or less are 4-3 in the first game of the next round and 4-3 in those series.

The sharpest contrast is noticed when teams with long layoffs play a side that is just fresh of the prior series. Clubs with seven days of rest or more playing against teams with three days of rest or less are 0-4 and are 1-3 in their respective series. Teams with two days of rest or less are 3-1 and are 3-1 in their respective series playing against teams that have “out-rested” them by three days or more.

Still, the beauty of what I’ll call the “layoff” argument is that it can be made both ways. Fans and analysts on either side can take the team’s layoff and mold it to suit their pre-series argument. Indeed, the same web site acknowledges the dichotomy:

A team that is well rested can relax and recover from injury, but also takes a break from the intensity of the playoffs. Conversely, a team coming off a Game 7 victory has momentum and doesn’t need to refocus. The downside is that the squad has to deal with the physical effects of a seven-game series.

However, in the end, even the gambling folks don’t take these intangibles into account when setting lines:

“That kind of tangible handicapping doesn’t play into our opening prices,” says Randy Scott, sportsbook manager of betED.com. “We stick with stats, matchup history and power rankings to guide our opening prices and leave the tangibles up to the players to figure out.”

So, what do the momentum, experience and team layoff arguments have in common? First, there’s very little evidence any of them actually exist, and, as such, any and all of them may just be figments of our imagination. (In fact, each of the three teams with lengthy layoffs between first and second round series – the Detroit Red Wings, Vancouver Canucks and Boston Bruins – won game one of their respective series.) And, all arguments are pliable enough to use in just about every situation depending on what occurs.

But, all arguments seem to come from folks who don’t have much else to fall back on while analyzing a game or series. Can’t explain Vancouver’s game one victory with “x’s and o’s” or game analysis? Must’ve been experience. Could’ve been momentum. Might’ve been all that rest the layoff afforded them. Or, was it the Hawks need to learn to lose before they win?

– Jonathan Toews was indeed sick for game one on Thursday. Still odd he wasn’t at least on the wing for the last couple face offs in the Vancouver zone with the Hawks scratching for the tying goal.

– Ben Eager won’t be suspended for railroading Rick Rypien on Thursday. Rypien, the Canucks’ answer to Adam Burish, deserves whatever he gets – short of permanent injury or death, of course – and wouldn’t hesitate to do the same to a Hawk this evening.

– On Thursday, I mentioned three keys to a Hawks’ first round victory: limit the Sedins; get the Toews/Kane/Sharp line going offensively; and have Khabibulin at least match Luongo. Well, despite the loss, the Sedins combined for only 2 points; Patrick Kane had two goals; and Khabibulin likely matched Luongo.

Must’ve been the momentum generated by the Canucks’ layoff and their relative experience.

Round Two, Fight!

Ask and you shall receive here at the Feather. 

As we’re just hours from the first puck drop between the Blackhawks and the Canucks in round two of the NHL playoffs, it’s about damn time we actually say something about it.

First, it seems all sides of the late-season playoff opponent argument – Flames or Canucks – will get their fill during this season’s playoffs.  After the Hawks dispatched the Flames in six, on come the Canucks, the other late-season first round playoff possibility for the Hawks.  Though most folks fell on the Flames side of the ledger – me included – we’ll all get a chance to see the Hawks against the ‘Nucks. 

So, why were most Hawk fans pulling for the Canucks to win the Northwest Division late in the year, leaving the Hawks to play the Flames?

Well, first and foremost, playoff hockey – as all us Chicago playoff newbies have recently learned – is about goaltending, and it’s possible Canucks’ goalie Roberto Luongo is as good as it gets in the NHL.  Aside from playing very well down the stretch, Luongo’s save percentage and goals against average during round one of the playoffs were .962 and 1.15.  If Luongo saves over 96% of the shots he sees this series – fat chance, I’m sure - the Hawks will lose.

Another reason was the Sedin gentlemen.  Not only are the two very talented hockey players, if one has an erection, the other feels it.  The two apparently share a brain, and one always seemingly knows where the other is.  Aside from killing the Hawks during the regular season, the two combined for nine points in the first round win, and each led the team with +4 ratings in the first round.  Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and the checking line du jour will have their hands absolutely full with the twins.  If the Hawks can keep each Sedin to Jarome Iginla-like stats in this second round, the Hawks will win.

The other reason many Hawk fans pushed for the Canucks down the stretch was secondary scoring.  Though the team entered the year with a big, bold question mark in the “Secondary Scoring” column, it’s become a relative strength since the signing of Mats Sundin.  Sundin, Ryan Kesler, Burrows, Demitra and Wellwood have all taken turns producing as secondary scorers. 

Sundin, the most seasoned of the group, missed games three and four in round one, but managed to score a goal during his play.  He’s also 12 months removed from a 78 point season in Toronto; he can hurt you.  Defensemen not named Keith and Seabrook will have to work to keep Sundin and the other scorers off the board, though the Hawks would rather see scorers not named Sedin beat them.

So, at this point, I guess we can say the “Flames” folks won the Hawk fan playoff argument.  After all, the Hawks were able to take the first round series, while the Canucks steamrolled the Blues. The ‘Nucks are certainly a lot like the Flames, though, in that they’re more size than speed.  At the same time, they have no shortage of skill.  The Sedins are downright scary, and each scoring line can hurt the Hawks.

So, what do the Hawks have to do? 

Same as the first round: stop the team’s best scorers.  It’s been the Hawks’ hallmark all season, and they can’t stop now.  From there, the Toews/Kane/Sharp line must produce at the level the Sedins will.  Finally, Khabibulin has to come close to matching Luongo. 

To do so, the Hawks will have to do all the things good teams do to good goalies: crash the net, get traffic in front, and move the puck side-to-side.  If one of these three things fails, I don’t like our Hawks’ chances.

And, for God’s sakes, go find a television with Versus!  Go!

Game 5 @ 8:00 pm in Chicago

Well, what else can we say about game five that (a) hasn’t been said in the last couple days in this space, or (b) wasn’t said about any of the previous four games?

While I pronounced the winner of game four as the likely series winner, the Hawks have the advantage of hosting two of the remaining three games.  As my partner in website crime, John, believes the home team may well win all seven games of the series, that obviously bodes well for the Blackhawks’ chances.  I, on the other hand, believe the Hawks must win this series in six, as I think Calgary would take a couple major advantages – playoff experience, size, etc. – into a game seven.  In my book, that makes tonight’s tilt a must-win for our beloved Hawk.

With that said, the Flames are western Canada’s walking wounded.  Andre Roy is suspended for tonight’s game, and Rene Bourque, Craig Conroy and Daymond Langkow all have injuries.  Langkow will play tonight, but the other two are still questionable for the game, though all three practiced yesterday.  And, even though Bourque and Conroy are two of the better Flames, these aren’t game changing subtractions.  So long as Jarome Iginla and Mikka Kiprusoff play Calgary has shown an ability to cover for other losses.  They’ll be fine; I promise.

Other than that, the Hawks will certainly attempt to ratchet up the speed again tonight, while trying to keep the Flames from setting up offensive shop in their zone.  They’ll need the Toews and Bolland lines to play better, and Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook will have to out-duel Iginla and friends on the Calgary first line.  Finally, Nikolai Khabibulin will have to return to early-series form, though talk of calling on back-up Crisobal Huet to replace Nik is, at best, premature.

So, here goes nothing.  Again, I think tonight is a must-win; falling behind Calgary 3-2 would mean reimbursements to season ticket holders for playoff tickets.  

That way, if things go horribly wrong, at least I can buy myself some new shoes.

Talk at you later.

FOUR!

1.  For starters, let’s congratulate Blackhawk rookie Kris Versteeg for his Calder Trophy nomination this morning. Yes, he and Anaheim’s Bobby Ryan will lose to Steve Mason of the Blue Jackets, but Versteeg’s jump from AHLer to Calder Trophy finalist is one of the more important ‘Hawk stories from this season. He’s also gone without the advantage of playing with legitimate playmakers most of the year like Ryan did.

2.  Mike Keenan must have an ulterior motive with all this babble. Anyone with a cable hook-up and a brain can see Keenan’s Flames have been the physical aggressors during each of this series’ three games, often doing so in borderline-dirty fashion.  One has to wonder whether Keenan’s trying to stir the media pot for the young ‘Hawks to boil in, perhaps in an effort to draw the faster ‘Hawks into a slower, more physical game.

Two things are for sure: his complaints have been, for the most part, illegitimate, and the ‘Hawks are much better off ignoring them.  Here’s hoping Coach Q asks the fourth line boys to deal with the mess, while requesting the others to skate, skate, skate.  So long as the series is about speed and skill - not physical play – the ‘Hawks will win.  Otherwise, well, I can’t promise anything.

3.  With the way the first three games have gone, I have a sneaky suspicion game four’s victor may be in the driver’s seat for the balance of the series. Obviously, though, if it’s Calgary, they’ll have to win at least once in Chicago’s United Center, and I’m sure Coach Q will empty the bag ‘o tricks to avoid a game seven against a more experienced bunch of Flames. (And, for the record, my partner in website crime, John, may not support these thoughts. Just tossing that one out there…)

Interestingly enough, statistics from this week’s The Hockey News show conference quarterfinal game four victors as winners of the entire series only 58% of the time since 1994.  Winners of each of the other individual six games win the entire series at least 62.5% of the time.  For example, while it’s obvious winners of game seven will win the series 100% of the time, those teams that won game one of a conference quarterfinal series won the series over 71% of time since 1994.  Winners of game six win the series a whopping 80% of the time, the highest percentage for any of the winners of a series’ first six games.

4.  Well, God speed, folks. As I predicted on Sunday in this space, the Flames put a nice game together on Monday, but taking a 3-1 series lead should just about seal the proverbial deal for the ‘Hawks.  While many believed the ‘Hawks were outplayed Monday, I thought the opposite.

Evidenced by a couple bad bounces and two soft goals in Calgary, they’ll need an effort superior to that in game three to win this evening.  A goal from the “spare parts” line of Pahlsson, Byfuglien and Versteeg could be a big step in the right direction.  A goal from the fourth line could trigger a set of events which would likely culminate in the apocolypse.

Be Careful What You Wish For

According to the Blackhawks, embattled winger Patrick Kane is a game time decision for this evening’s game in Calgary, Alberta.

It’s unclear exactly which beat-down caused Kane’s injury: the one from Rene Borque on Thursday or the one from the Daily Herald peanut gallery.

Colin Fraser, the likely fill-in for Kane, will do all the things a limited number of ’Hawk fans have asked from Kane; he’ll look as though he cares.  He just won’t be any good.

Here’s hoping Kane, one of the league’s most talented players, will be able to play tonight.

After thinking about it for a while, I think this may be a bit of gamesmanship by Joel Quenneville.  I’d be very surprised if Kane doesn’t play tonight.

Talk at you after the game.